Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Tuesday 31 March 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
Spain 7716 (+913) 87956 (+7846) 16780 (+2071) 63460 (+4862)
Italy 11591 (+812) 101739 (+4050) 14620 (+1590) 75528 (+1648)
United States 3148 (+677) 163195 (+21414) 5401 (+966) 154646 (+19771)
France 3024 (+418) 44550 (+4376) 7927 (+725) 33599 (+3233)
United Kingdom 1408 (+180) 22141 (+2619) 135 (+0) 20598 (+2439)
Iran 2757 (+117) 41495 (+3186) 13911 (+1520) 24827 (+1549)
Germany 645 (+112) 66885 (+4790) 13500 (+4289) 52740 (+389)
Netherlands 864 (+93) 11750 (+884) 250 (+0) 10636 (+791)
Belgium 513 (+82) 11899 (+1063) 1527 (+168) 9859 (+813)
Switzerland 359 (+59) 15922 (+1093) 1823 (+228) 13740 (+806)
Turkey 168 (+37) 10827 (+1610) 162 (+57) 10497 (+1516)
Sweden 146 (+36) 4028 (+328) 16 (+0) 3866 (+292)
Brazil 163 (+27) 4630 (+374) 120 (+114) 4347 (+233)
Canada 89 (+24) 7448 (+1168) 1093 (+520) 6266 (+624)
Romania 65 (+22) 2109 (+294) 209 (+3) 1835 (+269)
Austria 108 (+22) 9618 (+830) 636 (+157) 8874 (+651)
Portugal 140 (+21) 6408 (+446) 43 (+0) 6225 (+425)
Poland 31 (+9) 2055 (+193) 7 (+0) 2017 (+184)
Indonesia 122 (+8) 1414 (+129) 75 (+11) 1217 (+110)
Ireland 54 (+8) 2910 (+295) 5 (+0) 2851 (+287)
Morocco 33 (+7) 556 (+77) 15 (+2) 508 (+68)
Czechia 23 (+7) 3001 (+184) 25 (+14) 2953 (+163)
Philippines 78 (+7) 1546 (+128) 42 (+0) 1426 (+121)
Greece 46 (+7) 1212 (+56) 52 (+0) 1114 (+49)
Pakistan 21 (+7) 1717 (+120) 76 (+47) 1620 (+66)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 34471 (+3829) 702437 (+62599) 89200 (+13644)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 42010 ( +5856) 849401 ( +108332) 105406 ( +15458)
Wed 01 April 2020 48814 ( +6804) 973569 ( +124168) 123520 ( +18115)
Thu 02 April 2020 56719 ( +7906) 1115888 ( +142319) 144748 ( +21228)
Fri 03 April 2020 65906 ( +9186) 1279012 ( +163124) 169623 ( +24876)
Sat 04 April 2020 76580 ( +10674) 1465982 ( +186970) 198774 ( +29151)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 3304 (+4) 81470 (+31) 75700 (+252)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 3240 ( +1) 80938 ( +0) 74307 ( +125)
Wed 01 April 2020 3240 ( +0) 80939 ( +0) 74416 ( +109)
Thu 02 April 2020 3241 ( +0) 80939 ( +0) 74511 ( +95)
Fri 03 April 2020 3241 ( +0) 80939 ( +0) 74593 ( +82)
Sat 04 April 2020 3241 ( +0) 80939 ( +0) 74665 ( +71)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

If Spain follows Italy's behaviour we should start seeing a flattening of the number of Deaths and cases in the following days, although it is still not clear yet. When that happens the predicted deaths should be reduced with respect to this prediction.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 7716 (+913) 87956 (+7846) 16780 (+2071)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 8367 ( +717) 94984 ( +6921) 22435 ( +4637)
Wed 01 April 2020 8995 ( +628) 101286 ( +6302) 28280 ( +5846)
Thu 02 April 2020 9528 ( +533) 106900 ( +5614) 35649 ( +7369)
Fri 03 April 2020 9967 ( +439) 111806 ( +4906) 44938 ( +9289)
Sat 04 April 2020 10321 ( +354) 116021 ( +4215) 56647 ( +11709)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 11591 (+812) 101739 (+4050) 14620 (+1590)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 12063 ( +628) 104914 ( +3832) 17585 ( +1988)
Wed 01 April 2020 12630 ( +567) 108322 ( +3409) 19827 ( +2242)
Thu 02 April 2020 13135 ( +505) 111324 ( +3002) 22354 ( +2527)
Fri 03 April 2020 13579 ( +444) 113946 ( +2621) 25204 ( +2850)
Sat 04 April 2020 13964 ( +385) 116217 ( +2272) 28417 ( +3213)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 3148 (+677) 163195 (+21414) 5401 (+966)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 4132 ( +899) 212862 ( +39134) 8162 ( +2364)
Wed 01 April 2020 5281 ( +1150) 260811 ( +47949) 11490 ( +3329)
Thu 02 April 2020 6751 ( +1470) 319560 ( +58750) 16176 ( +4686)
Fri 03 April 2020 8630 ( +1879) 391544 ( +71984) 22773 ( +6597)
Sat 04 April 2020 11031 ( +2401) 479743 ( +88199) 32061 ( +9288)

France

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 3024 (+418) 44550 (+4376) 7927 (+725)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 3281 ( +296) 48157 ( +3716) 10840 ( +2020)
Wed 01 April 2020 3542 ( +261) 51711 ( +3553) 13323 ( +2483)
Thu 02 April 2020 3764 ( +222) 55048 ( +3338) 16375 ( +3052)
Fri 03 April 2020 3948 ( +184) 58132 ( +3083) 20126 ( +3751)
Sat 04 April 2020 4097 ( +149) 60936 ( +2805) 24736 ( +4610)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 2757 (+117) 41495 (+3186) 13911 (+1520)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 2776 ( +78) 46142 ( +3767) 15928 ( +1357)
Wed 01 April 2020 2843 ( +68) 50244 ( +4101) 17412 ( +1484)
Thu 02 April 2020 2902 ( +58) 54709 ( +4466) 19033 ( +1622)
Fri 03 April 2020 2951 ( +50) 59572 ( +4863) 20806 ( +1773)
Sat 04 April 2020 2993 ( +42) 64867 ( +5295) 22744 ( +1938)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 645 (+112) 66885 (+4790) 13500 (+4289)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 771 ( +124) 72129 ( +4948) 18082 ( +4458)
Wed 01 April 2020 901 ( +130) 76637 ( +4508) 23999 ( +5916)
Thu 02 April 2020 1032 ( +131) 80663 ( +4026) 31850 ( +7852)
Fri 03 April 2020 1159 ( +127) 84195 ( +3533) 42271 ( +10421)
Sat 04 April 2020 1277 ( +118) 87247 ( +3051) 56101 ( +13830)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 1408 (+180) 22141 (+2619) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 1825 ( +356) 27762 ( +4523) 187 ( +17)
Wed 01 April 2020 2268 ( +443) 33166 ( +5404) 206 ( +19)
Thu 02 April 2020 2818 ( +550) 39622 ( +6456) 227 ( +21)
Fri 03 April 2020 3501 ( +684) 47334 ( +7712) 250 ( +23)
Sat 04 April 2020 4351 ( +850) 56548 ( +9213) 275 ( +25)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 146 (+36) 4028 (+328) 16 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 150 ( +12) 4172 ( +251) 16 ( +0)
Wed 01 April 2020 159 ( +9) 4416 ( +243) 16 ( +0)
Thu 02 April 2020 166 ( +7) 4649 ( +234) 16 ( +0)
Fri 03 April 2020 172 ( +5) 4871 ( +222) 16 ( +0)
Sat 04 April 2020 175 ( +4) 5080 ( +209) 16 ( +0)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 864 (+93) 11750 (+884) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 1132 ( +209) 14613 ( +1981) 250 ( +0)
Wed 01 April 2020 1387 ( +256) 16905 ( +2292) 250 ( +0)
Thu 02 April 2020 1701 ( +313) 19557 ( +2652) 250 ( +0)
Fri 03 April 2020 2085 ( +384) 22625 ( +3068) 250 ( +0)
Sat 04 April 2020 2556 ( +471) 26174 ( +3549) 250 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 31 (+9) 2055 (+193) 7 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 34 ( +5) 2248 ( +198) nan ( +nan)
Wed 01 April 2020 40 ( +6) 2434 ( +187) nan ( +nan)
Thu 02 April 2020 47 ( +7) 2605 ( +171) nan ( +nan)
Fri 03 April 2020 56 ( +9) 2759 ( +153) nan ( +nan)
Sat 04 April 2020 66 ( +10) 2894 ( +135) nan ( +nan)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 359 (+59) 15922 (+1093) 1823 (+228)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 395 ( +43) 16249 ( +602) 2864 ( +766)
Wed 01 April 2020 437 ( +42) 16746 ( +496) 3909 ( +1045)
Thu 02 April 2020 476 ( +39) 17150 ( +404) 5336 ( +1427)
Fri 03 April 2020 512 ( +36) 17475 ( +325) 7284 ( +1948)
Sat 04 April 2020 545 ( +32) 17734 ( +259) 9942 ( +2659)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 513 (+82) 11899 (+1063) 1527 (+168)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 683 ( +144) 14724 ( +2338) 2044 ( +417)
Wed 01 April 2020 867 ( +183) 17503 ( +2779) 2568 ( +524)
Thu 02 April 2020 1099 ( +232) 20806 ( +3304) 3225 ( +658)
Fri 03 April 2020 1393 ( +294) 24733 ( +3927) 4052 ( +826)
Sat 04 April 2020 1767 ( +373) 29401 ( +4668) 5089 ( +1038)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.